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2012年5月11日 星期五

中美物價差別大 經濟學者很吃驚









中美物價差別大 經濟學者很吃驚
網友張貼美國感恩節前超市的食品價格(網絡圖片)


近日,中國大陸通貨膨脹繼續加劇,物價衝高令公眾不滿,有網友發佈微博對中美消費及物價進行了對比,此博文得到廣泛轉發。這條博文還引起了經濟人士的共 鳴,經濟學家簡天倫表示,中國普通民眾收入比美國低得多,但消費的產品比美國貴得多。這種現象的根本原因在於中共的貨幣政策和財政政策,此外,商品流通中 的費用過高也對商品價格起到了助漲作用。 

美國商品比中國的便宜
網友在這條微博寫道:中國,工資5,000元,吃一次肯德基30元,下一次館子最少100元,買 條Levis牛仔褲400元,買輛車最少30,000元——夏利;美國,工資5,000美元,吃一次肯德基4美元,下一次館子40美元,買條Levis牛 仔褲20美元,買輛車30,000美元。雖然數據未必完全準確,短短幾句話仍道出了中美物價及消費的巨大差異。

經濟學家簡天倫接受大紀元記者採訪時表示,他曾經也做過這方面的調查,結果令他很吃驚。以購買力和人均收入水平來說,中國物價明顯高於美國,甚至在價格上,很多美國的商品都比中國的便宜,甚至在美國買中國製造的產品,價格也比在中國便宜得多。
他舉例:「2007年在中國配了一個老花鏡,價格是220元,同等質量的在美國商場只要10美元。」
「中國的房價不用說了,北京、上海的房價都比紐約曼哈頓的房價貴得多,一套60多平方米建築面積的房子,質量一般,都可以賣到200萬人民幣左右,不可想像。」

簡天倫說,中國收入比美國低得多,但中國國內消費的產品,常常比美國貴得多,現在很多人都注意到這個現象。

大陸知名財經評論人士時寒冰去年的調查結果也印證了簡天倫的結論。

據《中國青年報》報導,去年,時寒冰到美國旅行,特別對中美物價的差別進行了半個月的走訪對比,結果讓他大吃一驚。

國內一套3萬元左右的阿瑪尼西裝,在美國只要500美元就可以買到;國內標價4.6萬元的勞力士手錶,在美國不到4,000美元。
 
在美國,一杯咖啡只要2美元,看一場電影只要10美元,分別占美國人平均月收入的萬分之六和千分之三。而在中國,同樣的比法得出的數據是百分之一點三和百分之三點五,相當於美國居民負擔費用的45倍和12倍左右。

在中國售價為1,500元左右的箱子,美國商場通常標價70多美元。

通過這次為期半個月的走訪,時寒冰最終的調查結果是:除非涉及到人工服務,比如理髮,或涉及知識產權,比如圖書音像外,美國商品的價格普遍低於國內,即便「MADE IN CHINA」的商品,常常也比中國便宜50%以上。

貨幣政策、財政政策、高流通費用是主因
對於中國商品價格比美國商品價格貴的原因,簡天倫認為,貨幣政策和財政政策是中美商品價格差的主要原因,商品流通過程中的費用也起到了助漲作用。

簡 天倫分析,最近幾年,中國大陸銀行貸款急速增長,儘管中國的GDP比美國少得多,但中國的廣義貨幣供應量已經超過美國20%多;長期以來中共以低估人民幣 推動出口,產生巨額外匯順差,以致外匯儲備年年攀高。為了維持低估的人民幣匯率,央行以基礎貨幣增發來對沖外匯儲備的增加,從而大大增加了貨幣流通量;再 加上近年來,中國的地方政府大量以賣地收入為擔保借錢投資,截至2010年底,地方債高達10.7萬億人民幣。

他說:「這些方面導致大量貨幣供應,從而使市場貨幣流動性氾濫,加劇通脹,推高了物價。」

簡天倫表示,在財政政策方面,中共多年來財政收入增速都遠超國家GDP增速,年增長達20%以上司空見慣,實質是稅收非常高。

他 舉例:依據國際貨幣基金組織《政府財政統計年鑑(2007)》公佈的2006年數據計算,中國商品中所含的稅比任何一個發達國家都高:是美國的4.17 倍,是日本的3.76倍,是歐盟15國的2.33倍。「比如有甚麼增值稅、營業稅、消費稅等流轉稅,導致一些產品的最終端價格有50%甚至70%是稅 收。」

簡天倫說,再一方面,中國的物流費用也很高,大陸有媒體報導,1公斤貨物從廣州運到上海,比從廣州運到美國更貴;從上海運到貴州,比 從上海運到紐約更貴。而且商品進入商場、超市還有入場費,抽成費,商品展示費,堆頭費,海報費,新商品推廣費等等巧立名目的費用,這些費用有時佔到零售商 營業額的30%以上。

簡天倫認為,正是這些原因,導致了中國民眾收入比美國低得多,但消費的產品比美國貴得多。

復旦大學經濟 學院教授韋森也對中國青年報舉例說,在目前中國商場裡出售的100元女性化妝品中,會有14.53元的增值稅,25.64元的消費稅以及4.02元的城建 稅。單這三項,就佔整個女性化妝品零售價格的44.19%,如果再加上生產和運輸環節的間接稅收,保守地說,政府稅收對女性化妝品的最終價格至少「貢獻」 了50%以上。

再比如,一塊在內地售價為2,700元的瑞士進口手錶,將包含17%的增值稅392元,30%的消費稅692元,還有11%的關稅……他表示,順著這個邏輯推演,就知道這種價格的高企是如何轉嫁給消費者的了。

網友張貼美國感恩節前超市的廣告(網絡圖片)




A blogger on Weibo, a Chinese version of Twitter, recently compared average monthly income and a few common expenses in America and in China that drew net-surfers’ attention.
The blog said: “China, salary: 5,000 yuan ($773); eating out: 100 yuan ($15.50); Levis jeans: 400 yuan ($62). America, salary: $5,000; eating out: $40; Levis jeans: $20.”
Even though the data may not be quite precise, it makes the point that there is a huge and puzzling price gap for consumer goods in America and in China.
Inflation is rampant in China. Figures for this May show a 5.5 percent price increase, reaching a three-year high. Compared to average income levels, the cost of ordinary consumer goods—such as clothing or eating out—is many times higher in China than in the United States.
Chinese economist Dr. Jian Tianlun told The Epoch Times in a telephone interview that he has done this kind of research before and was shocked by the results. Considering buying power and average income, many consumer prices in China are much higher than in America, he said.
“Housing prices in Beijing and Shanghai are higher than those in New York’s Manhattan. A 60 square meter (646 square foot), average-quality apartment costs 2 million yuan ($310,000). This is unbelievable,” Dr. Jian said.
Chinese people’s incomes are much less than Americans’, yet the consumer goods in China are more expensive, Dr. Jian added.
Research conducted by prominent economics commentator Shi Hanbing, editor of Shanghai Securities News opinion page concurred with Dr. Jian’s observations.
Last year on a visit to the U.S., Shi spent two weeks researching consumer prices, including luxury items.
Shi found that in China an Armani suit costs 30,000 yuan ($4,640), but in America it only costs $500. In China a Rolex watch costs 46,000 yuan ($7,116) while in America it costs $4,000. A BMW-1 series costs 500,000 yuan ($77,345) in China and $28,000 in America.
Even goods labeled “Made in China” are about 50 percent cheaper in America than in China.
Shi concluded that unless it involves services and labor, such as haircuts, or intellectual property, such as books and videos, prices for the same products are lower in the U.S.
Shi’s findings were published in a June 29 report by China Youth.

Bad Monetary Policies

Dr. Jian came up with a number of reasons for the high cost of consumer goods in China, among them monetary and economic policies imposed by the regime and also high logistics costs.
The large number of bank loans in China is one reason for high prices. Despite the fact that China’s GDP is significantly lower than America’s, China’s broad money supply, or M2, is over 20 percent larger than in the U.S., according to Dr. Jian.
“The Chinese regime has for a long time been devaluing the Chinese currency in order to stimulate exports, which has created large foreign trade surpluses resulting in increased foreign currency reserves. To keep the low exchange rate of the renminbi (RMB), China’s Central Bank has to print more RMB in order to keep a balance between foreign currency and RMB circulation,” Dr. Jian said, adding that this excessive printing of RMB has triggered inflation and rising prices.
At the same time, the costs of logistics in China are also very high, Dr. Jian said. He cited a report from a Chinese media that said it costs more to transport 1 kg of goods the 1,260 miles from Guiyang, capital of Guizhou Province, to Shanghai than to America, which is 6,140 miles. Moreover, he said that to fill department store shelves in China, one has to pay a slew of fees: entry fees, commission fees, display fees, promotion fees, flyer fees, new product advertisement fees, etc. These fees can make up 30 percent of a product’s retail price.
In addition to inflation, high taxation also eats away people’s spending power. Jian said that year after year, the income increase of Chinese officials is higher than the GDP. It is common for Chinese officials’ income to increasing by 20 percent in any given year, and this is a result of high taxation. Dr. Jian said, in his belief, these are the reasons why Chinese workers are making less and paying more for most consumer items than American workers.








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